A conversation that moves with you
Describe your organisation and concerns. The assistant identifies relevant gaps, asks one question at a time and lets you resume later. You do not need to navigate a long checklist to find the right topic.
Risk & decisions · 02
Quantitative risk analysis
Available
DefoAI helps you understand what a cyber incident could cost your business. An AI-guided conversation gathers context and evidence; reviewed assumptions then feed financial simulations to compare your options.
DiscoverDefoAI
Talk about your business. Understand your exposure.
You know your customers, your operations and what needs to keep running. DefoAI starts with that knowledge. Leaders, finance teams and business owners can contribute in their own words, without specialist cyber or statistical knowledge. The assistant structures the information; your analyst reviews the evidence and financial assumptions.
Evidence you can revisit
Your notes and documents can support the assessment. Each suggestion links to the passage behind it. You review and accept changes; missing information remains an explicit gap to investigate.
Numbers from an explicit model
AI helps with collection and understanding. A versioned calculation engine produces results from approved parameters. You can trace the sources, choices and limits behind each estimate.
Analysis starts with a conversation
Your words. The right starting point.
A business owner describes the consequences of an outage; the assistant helps clarify the context and identify useful evidence. The exchange prepares a structured assessment that you can review and complete with your analyst.
DefoAI · Assessment assistant
Business owner
I run an online shop. We generate about €40,000 in daily sales. I want to know whether our backup budget fits the risk of an outage.
DefoAI
Let’s start with a scenario where your shop becomes unavailable. During the last outage, how long were you unable to take orders?
Business owner
Two days. About 40% of orders were placed after service resumed. Our margin is 35%. I have the incident report and sales figures.
DefoAI
That helps distinguish delayed sales from lost sales, then estimate the impact on your margin. What additional costs did you incur to restore service?
Business owner
We paid our provider €8,000. They now offer an isolated backup and recovery tests for €6,000 per year.
DefoAI
We can compare that option with the current scenario, linking the costs to your documents. To estimate the risk reduction, what recovery time does the provider commit to with this solution?
The method
From context to a decision.
- 01
Understand what matters
Define the decision, activities, countries and scope. Conversations and documents help identify dependencies, existing controls and evidence to complete.
- 02
Build credible scenarios
Define the incident and included costs. With your analyst, document low, likely and high estimates for frequency and loss, their sources and applicability to your company. Approve these assumptions before calculation.
- 03
Compare and decide
Simulate possible years, examine loss and uncertainty, then compare actions with their costs and estimated effectiveness. Assign owners, track progress and recalculate when assumptions change.
Understand the results
A shared basis for decisions.
A view of typical years and severe losses
The median marks the middle of simulated years; the mean reveals the influence of expensive events. P95 is a threshold below which 95% of simulated annual losses fall, under the chosen assumptions.
The assumptions that shape your decision
Exceedance curves show how often simulated losses pass a threshold. Sensitivity analysis shows how changes in frequency or cost affect mean loss; convergence checks flag results that need review.
A record to share and develop
Sources, approved assumptions and model versions accompany the results. Printable reports and CSV and JSON exports support conversations across leadership, finance and security. Earlier results are preserved.
From research to product
Academic rigour for everyday decisions.
At Coresentry, our research connects academic literature with organisational needs. We translate it into explainable methods, verifiable calculations and directions for development. Here is what that means in practice for DefoAI.
In DefoAI
Break risk down to explain it
The approach separates incident frequency from cost, drawing on quantitative approaches such as FAIR. DefoAI currently uses a variant based on estimated total loss per event, allowing each scenario and assumption to be discussed separately.
In DefoAI
Make uncertainty visible
Monte Carlo simulation explores many possible years from documented ranges. It can represent incidents clustered in some years and rare losses exceeding the estimated base cost. A single average cannot fully describe that exposure.
In DefoAI
Adapt to the actual context
Sector, countries, activities and the observation period define the scope. Parameters are contextualised for your company, and their sources remain available for review.
In DefoAI
Learn from new evidence
Bayesian network research examines how to connect risk factors and revise estimates as new evidence appears. DefoAI incorporates automatic Bayesian updates so estimates evolve with new information.
In DefoAI
Understand cascading effects
Risk network research sheds light on dependencies across functions, suppliers and activities. DefoAI incorporates scenario dependencies and correlated losses to represent their combined impact on your business.
In DefoAI
Connect security with business consequences
Recent work, including FABRICS (2026), combines cyber and business expertise to estimate incident consequences. This informs our intake method: teams contribute evidence and context; the analyst makes included costs explicit. DefoAI incorporates the FABRICS model to connect threats, control failures and financial consequences.
Selected research informing our approach
Inform your next decision.
Tell us about your challenges and discover DefoAI.
Financial estimates depend on approved data and assumptions; they do not predict the next incident. AI proposes information for review, and calculations remain under human oversight. Our literature review guides product development; it is not an independent validation of its results.
Intended outcome
A decision you can explain: which risks to address, with what budget and on which assumptions.
Capabilities
Resumable guided conversations focused on missing information
Document reading and suggestions linked to their sources
Financial scenarios based on approved assumptions
Annual loss simulations with visibility into severe events
Action comparisons with costs and estimated reductions
Traceable reports, exports and ownership tracking
Frequently asked questions
Answers to help you move forward.
Can I contribute without technical expertise?
Yes. DefoAI gathers context through a guided conversation with accessible questions about activities, outages and costs. An analyst then reviews evidence and financial assumptions.
Which methods does DefoAI use?
DefoAI combines Monte Carlo simulation, the FABRICS model, Bayesian updating and scenario dependencies. Results remain linked to reviewable assumptions and sources.
Which results can I examine?
The assessment presents simulated annual losses, median and mean losses, severe-loss thresholds and exceedance curves. It also supports comparing actions with their costs and estimated effectiveness.
Does AI make investment decisions for me?
DefoAI helps structure and understand the assessment. Assumptions are approved, numbers come from the calculation engine and decisions remain under human control.
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